Let’s break down the numbers. Over 80% of projected losses sit with the ten worst-hit developers. Of those developers, Vanke (万科) leads the list, forecasting a record net loss of around RMB 82 billion (about US$11.7 billion). Other major loss-makers include China Fortune Land Development (华夏幸福), Greenland Holdings (绿地控股), Overseas Chinese Town (华侨城), and Gemdale (金地集团). What we’re seeing is that these large, formerly stable players are absorbing much of the damage.  

It’s not all bad news. There is still profit in places, but the firms that do profit are a definite minority. It’s also worth noting that where companies do profit, those profits largely come from asset disposals, debt restructuring, or accounting adjustments. Core real estate sales remain weak.  

Chinese property developer losses: the how and the why

So what does this say about China’s property reset? All signs point to this downturn being structural, not cyclical. Policy changes have slowed the collapse but confidence in the sector could hardly be called soaring.  

Much of this is down to excess supply in the wrong places. As China’s construction market boomed, houses were thrown up aggressively, and often speculatively. This isn’t a huge problem in big cities where demand for housing is high, but in lower-tier cities or rural areas, those speculation builds become cash tied up in assets – assets without demand.  

House prices fall due to low demand, which makes waiting to buy a rational decision. And so property developers are stuck. Often, looking for ways to free up their cash, they’ll sell up at a loss. The era of growth-by-default is over, and the balance sheets show it. 

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Last year, 180,900 transactions were made in the real estate market in Dubai, with a total value of 142.4 billion USD, up 36% and 27% year-on-year (YoY), respectively. Both new builds and second-hand housing saw significant growth in 2024, with new build transaction value growing 30% YoY to 91.1 billion USD. Price per square foot also grew 10% to 435 USD. The used market grew because of new payment plans and stimulus for settlement, with the total value reaching 51.2 billion USD, up 21% YoY.

Other data also shows that the Chinese investor had a much more significant presence in the property market in Dubai. In 2024, Chinese investment jumped to number 4 on the ranking by country, up from number 9 in 2023. Chinese capital contributed to roughly 8% of the real estate transactions in 2024 in Dubai.

After several years of the property boom, Dubai’s market is still popular among international investors, including Chinese ones. With both sale prices and rent going up, earlier buyers are seeing returns on their investments. 2024 saw an inrush of buyers from the UK, looking for better returns, as well as from neighbouring Middle Eastern countries searching for stability. Data from early 2025 also saw a stabilisation of prices in the market.

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The results of Country Garden’s first day back on the HKEX far exceeded market expectations. In combination with recent policy changes, the real estate sector received a boost from the market, both in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Vanke was up 7.45%, CCCG Real Estate grew 5.32%, and Gemdale Corporation saw a 5.19% increase in its share prices. In fact, property stocks had more transactions in half a day on 21 January compared to the entire day the day before.

In April 2024, Country Garden’s stock was suspended pending its financial results from 2023. It also faced a delayed liquidation hearing in Hong Kong, filed by creditor Ever Creditor Limited. However, Country Garden announced its debt restructuring agreement with 7 banks on 9 January, as well as releasing its 2023 annual report and H1 2024 report on 14 January. Country Garden’s total revenue in 2023 was 401 billion RMB (54.82 USD), with a loss of 200.96 billion RMB (27.47 billion USD). In the first half of 2024, the company’s loss was reduced to 10.8 billion RMB (1.48 billion USD) against 102.1 billion RMB (13.96 billion USD) in revenue.

The uplift in business gave Country Garden and its investors the confidence to face the liquidation hearing and restart trading. With the Chinese government pledging policy changes to help the ailing real estate sector, Country Garden might just have a shot at reviving itself in 2025.

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Starting in Guangzhou on 29 September, then Shenzhen, both in Guangdong province in Southern China, followed by Shanghai and then Beijing on 30 September, all four “tier-1” cities announced their new policies before the “golden week” holidays. Guangzhou announced the most extensive policy changes and became the first tier-1 city to lift all home purchasing restrictions. Individuals and families with hukou in or outside Guangzhou will be able to buy a home, regardless of how many homes they own. Shenzhen and Shanghai have fewer radical changes in their restriction policy.

Beijing is the last one to lift some of its restrictions. Changes include lowering the years of paying social security and income tax in Beijing before a family without Beijing hukou can buy a home from 5 to 3, with special talents being able to purchase a home after paying income tax and social security for 1 year. The down payment proportion has also come down from 20% to 15% for first homes, and from 35% (within 5th Ring Road) and 30% (outside 5th Ring Road) to 20%.

Other major cities have followed suit, from provincial capitals like Wuhan to other populous cities like Wuxi, past restrictions have loosened, and consumer sentiment is much warmer. Nanjing, Jiangsu reported stabilisation and growth in home buying in the last week of September and even the stocks of property developers are surging, due to both the stimulus from the central bank, the Politburo meeting and the local policies. As with the stock market boom, it needs further observation to see if the property policies are effective and sustainable.

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The store is divided into two halves, with signs displaying the logos of both partners each on one side. Inside, Manner’s coffee counter is on the left while Lianjia’s reception stands on the right. At the opening event, locals were invited to share free cake and coffee and canned and boxed drinks to take home. The first 200 people visiting the Manner x Lianjia branch for coffee and posting on social media could also win a thermos cup. On Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform, the topic “Manner and Lianjia shared storefront appears in Shanghai” (#上海惊现链家MANNER共享门店#) gained 1.54 million views in less than 12 hours.

According to Li Jiawei, Director of Lianjia Shanghai’s brand centre, the estate agent has long aspired to create a shared space for community activities, making its offline location more than just offices and meeting rooms between agents and clients. It hopes that the local community can relax, read and drink coffee at its offices. Back in 2020, Lianjia partnered with Xinhua Bookstore to create a “city library” at 20 of its branches. Manner, as a native Shanghai brand, helps Lianjia to integrate into the local community.

Manner has been slowly expanding its presence. Last October the boutique chain opened its 1,000 directly operated branches, before reaching 1,100 the next day and 1,200 in a month. It has been focusing on quality and lifestyle, compared to its price and discount-driven competitors like Luckin Coffee. But interestingly, the estate agent branch is reminiscent of Luckin Coffee’s “targeted location franchising” where the coffee giant targets offices, hospitals, campuses and tourist attractions for new franchises. Although Manner is not competing with Luckin in scale and price range, how they target key and innovative offline spaces is interesting to watch, just as how Manner does collaborations differently.

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Yet China’s housing market has been booming in recent years and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6.6% to 30.7 trillion RMB in 2024, from 22.3 trillion RMB in 2019, according to research company China Insights Industry Consultancy.

China’s young people struggle to get on the property ladder

Despite financial constraints, social expectations on young people is helping to keep the housing market afloat. Renting when married is uncommon in China and couples are expected to own a property prior to marriage. Buying a property is seen as a crucial part of forming a home and important to ensure financial stability for the future. Hence, both sons and daughters face extensive pressure from parents to get on the property ladder.

So how do young people achieve this with the problem of housing affordability versus salary?

While some will opt to buy a property in their hometown or rent in big cities, many rely on their parent’s support. According to Mark Tanner, director of the research firm China Skinny, around 90% of Chinese first-time home buyers are helped out by their families. The expectation, especially on men, that a suitable partner should own a property means that many parents are eager to give their children a foot up in this respect.

Online housing platform, Beike, sympathised with the issues that young people face in regards to housing in their campaign “urban workers’ shelter”.

Beike’s VR touring tool successful during COVID

Beike, which literally means “shell”, is China’s online property platform backed by Tencent Holdings and SoftBank Group. The company offers 100 million property listings in more than 300 cities across China.

One of the most defining features of the platform is that it provides virtual touring experiences through VR devices. This allows users to comprehensively examine and value properties online.

As well as increasing convenience for potential renters or buyers, the tool was also extremely useful during China’s COVID-19 outbreak as house viewings could be conducted virtually. Beike’s VR touring experiences helped the company rake in 27.26 billion RMB in the first half of this year, a 39% increase on the year before.

Beike has filed to go public in New York in an offering that could be worth as much as $2 billion. The company is also looking at a Nasdaq listing and has picked Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead organisers for the offering.

Beike highlights the importance of having a home

In big cities, urban workers need to find their “shell”, a home where they feel protected and at ease. Beike launched a short film based on the real-life stories of three individuals who explained what a house means to them. The video hit 206,000 views on Weibo and it inspired many netizens to share their own stories of the challenges of finding a house.

I’ve been living in Beijing for 15 years. I can finally afford a flat in this city. I feel like I’m protected by armour and no-one can hurt me. 10 years ago, we rented a small flat here but we both felt like it was our home. Now, I don’t know where you are but I still remember our memory.

The story of a couple who broke up 10 years before but the man could only now afford a flat in Beijing

The first story features a young couple who decide to get married and buy a home together. However, the girl’s parents don’t allow them to be with each other because of their different family backgrounds. This is a common phenomena in China: parents disprove of their children’s partner if they don’t meet certain requirements, such as owning a house, a decent car or having a job with a high enough salary.

However, the girl ignores her parent’s judgment and simply says: “Let’s go home.” The simple phrase conveys the importance of owning a home to newlyweds in Chinese society.

Beike’s stories resonated with consumers, many of whom would have experienced similar scenarios in their lives.

Beike empathises with the challenges young people face

Beike showed that they understood the pressures and challenges on young people to own a home in China. By weaving emotion into their marketing strategy, they resonated with their audience and gained consumers’ attention. Property brands need to fully understand the culture linked to housing in China and incorporate this into their campaigns.

Brand: Beike Zhaofang

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